Media Mix Modeling | DW Creative
Media Analytics & Measurement

Stop Letting Ad Platforms
Grade Their Own Homework

Most agencies report what Google, Meta, and broadcast stations tell them. We build independent statistical models that reveal what's actually driving your sales — across every channel, simultaneously.

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The Problem

Attribution Data Is Broken — and Most Agencies Don't Tell You

When every channel claims credit for the same sale, something is wrong with your measurement.

📊

Platform Self-Reporting

Google reports Google's ROI. Meta reports Meta's. Neither accounts for what the other channel contributed — or what would have happened regardless.

🔍

GA4 Attribution Gaps

TV, radio, and direct mail drive real revenue that never registers in digital analytics. They look like they're not working because the tools can't see them.

📉

Budget Decisions on Instinct

Without an independent model, budget shifts are educated guesses. Money follows dashboards, not actual performance.

Our Approach

What Is Media Mix Modeling?

Media Mix Modeling (MMM) is a statistical technique that analyzes your actual sales data alongside media spend — across every channel — to determine what's truly driving revenue.

Unlike platform dashboards, MMM is built on your data, not theirs. It isolates the real contribution of each channel, controls for seasonality and external factors, and produces a single independent view of performance.

The result: budget decisions grounded in evidence, not instinct.

Media Mix Model Contribution by Channel — all markets
The Process

How We Build Your Model

1

Data Collection & Validation

We pull your actual sales history, media spend by channel, and behavioral data — typically spanning 2–5 years. We validate for gaps, anomalies, and seasonality before modeling begins. Your data stays yours.

2

Statistical Regression Modeling

We run a multi-variable regression model that isolates the independent contribution of each media channel to your sales outcomes — controlling for baseline demand, seasonality, promotions, and market conditions.

3

Review & Calibration

Model outputs are reviewed against known business events — major promotions, seasonal patterns, market disruptions — to sense-check directional accuracy before the model informs any spending decisions.

4

Automated Weekly Delivery

Once built, the model runs on an automated schedule. Results — including channel ROIs, contribution trends, and spend recommendations — are delivered to your inbox every week without manual intervention.

5

Ongoing Budget Optimization

Every media planning conversation is grounded in model output. When the data signals a shift, we act on it — before the next quarter's plan locks in.

Channel Coverage

Every Channel. One Model.

Most attribution tools only see digital. Our models are built to include the full media mix — online and offline.

📺 Television
📻 Radio
💻 Digital Display
🔍 Paid Search
📱 Paid Social
📬 Direct Mail
📡 OTT / Streaming
🏙️ Out of Home
Live Reporting

An Independent View of Every Channel — Updated Every Week

Your model isn't a static report. It's a live Tableau dashboard you can filter by market, channel, and time period — driven by an automated data pipeline that runs without manual intervention.

  • Revenue contribution isolated by channel, year over year
  • Filter to any individual market to compare performance
  • Per-channel ROI calculated for every period — including negative signals worth acting on
  • Weekly delivery to your inbox — no exports, no waiting on an agency report
Media Mix Model — Topeka market contribution by channel
What the Data Actually Shows

Channel ROI — Not Impressions, Not CPMs

Every channel in your model carries an independently calculated return on investment. Here's an example from a real multi-location retailer we work with:

Weekly Policy Memo — Anonymized Client Example

14.5x
TV ROI (2024)
17.7x
Paid Social ROI (historical)
−14.0x
Radio (flagged for investigation)
3
Actionable opportunities identified

Each week, the model flags channels with negative ROI for investigation and surfaces dormant channels with strong historical returns as reactivation opportunities — before budgets are locked.

The Model Tells You What Platforms Won't

In the example above, radio showed a −14.0x ROI. Without a model, spend in that channel would have continued based on reach metrics alone. The model caught it and flagged it for investigation — saving meaningful budget that could be redirected to channels with proven returns.

That's not a platform reporting on itself. That's independent evidence.

Channel ROI detail — 2024 TV Contribution 1.86M, TV ROI 14.5x
The Difference

Evidence, Not Instinct

How our approach compares to conventional agency measurement:

Conventional Reporting

  • Platforms report their own ROI
  • TV and direct mail invisible in digital analytics
  • Budget decisions from gut feel or prior year plan
  • No model isolating each channel's true contribution
  • Quarterly reports arrive too late to act on
  • Attribution inflated by channels claiming shared credit

DW Creative MMM

  • Independent model built on your actual sales data
  • All channels — TV, radio, digital, mail — in one model
  • Every budget recommendation tied to model evidence
  • Channel contribution isolated, controlling for seasonality
  • Weekly automated delivery — decisions stay current
  • No platform has a stake in your model's results
What's Included

What You Get

Model

Custom MMM on Your Data

A validated regression model using your sales history and actual spend — not industry benchmarks or third-party panels.

Dashboard

Live Tableau Reporting

Interactive visualization showing channel contribution by time period and market. Filter and drill down without waiting on a report.

Automation

Weekly Policy Memo

Model outputs — channel ROIs, spend recommendations, and flags — delivered to your inbox every week via automated pipeline.

Strategy

Budget Optimization

Every media planning conversation grounded in model findings. When data signals a shift, we act on it before budgets lock.

Right Fit

This Works Best For

Multi-Location Retailers

Running different media mixes across markets? The model isolates what's working in each location — not just the aggregate.

Home Services Companies

HVAC, roofing, remodeling, gutters. Long purchase cycles and offline conversion make digital attribution nearly useless without an independent model.

Advertisers Spending $500K+/Year

The model pays for itself when it prevents one bad budget shift. At meaningful spend levels, the signal-to-noise ratio makes MMM invaluable.

Brands Running TV or Radio

Broadcast spend is invisible in digital analytics. If you're running TV or radio, you need a model that can see it — or you're flying blind.

See What Your Media Mix Is Really Doing

We'll walk you through how the model works and what we'd need from you to build one. No commitment — just a straight conversation about your data.

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