Why Your Competitor’s Media Mix Probably Won’t Work for You
I once had a call with an $18 million roofing company out of the Northeast. The owner started grilling us on media costs for a similarly sized roofer in the Midwest: “What was your cost per lead on (TV, Radio, Billboards, Direct Mail, Social Media, Google, etc)?”
My response should have been simple: “What does that have to do with your company?”
The media mix that works for home service businesses isn’t a one-size-fits-all formula. It depends on your revenue, your market, your trade, and what you’re actually trying to accomplish. But most owners make decisions based on what worked for someone else — or worse, what a salesperson told them would work.
The Core Problem: You’re Optimizing for Someone Else’s Business
Walk into any home services conference, and you’ll hear confident proclamations about “the best channels.” Digital marketers say traditional is dead. Traditional reps say digital is oversaturated. Everyone has an angle because everyone is selling something.
The real issue? Most owners allocate budget based on instinct, sales pressure, or peer recommendations — not on what the data actually shows for businesses like theirs. A media mix that crushes it for a $5 million remodeler might bleed cash for a $500K HVAC startup. Different revenue levels, different markets, different economics.
What the Evidence Actually Says
DW Creative runs Media Mix Modeling (MMM) for home service businesses across the country. We’ve analyzed millions in ad spend across HVAC, roofing, remodeling, and other trades. The patterns are clear — and they contradict a lot of the conventional wisdom you’ll hear.
First, digital dominance isn’t universal. For many established home service businesses doing $2 million or more in revenue, traditional media — especially broadcast TV and direct mail — still delivers measurable, incremental ROI. Our MMM data shows that businesses in this range often see strong returns from a hybrid approach: 40-50% traditional, 50-60% digital. Why? Reach and frequency at scale. When you need consistent volume, digital alone often can’t deliver enough qualified traffic without costs spiraling.
But here’s where it gets interesting: that balance shifts dramatically based on revenue and market size. A $500K contractor in a mid-sized market usually can’t make traditional work. The minimums are too high, the frequency too diluted. For businesses at this stage, we typically see 80-90% digital allocations working best — heavy on Google Local Services Ads, paid search, and targeted social. Traditional enters the mix only when you have enough revenue to sustain it without killing cash flow.
According to DW Creative’s American Homeowner Media Research, 88% of homeowners use online research as a top source for home improvement decisions — tied with referrals. That means digital presence isn’t optional. But the same study shows 65% still use TV/cable as an information source, and 59% rely on direct mail. Homeowners aren’t just online. They’re everywhere. The question is where you can afford to show up consistently.
OTT and streaming get a lot of hype right now, but our MMM data paints a more nuanced picture. OTT can work — but it’s not a magic bullet. The targeting is better than broadcast, but completion rates and actual conversion tracking remain challenging. We’ve seen OTT perform well as part of a larger brand-building effort for businesses doing $3 million+, but as a standalone channel for direct response? It underperforms paid search and LSAs almost every time. The research backs this up: 63% of homeowners stream in the evening, but only 12% regularly follow local home services brands on social media. They’re watching, but they’re not necessarily in buying mode.
Trade matters, too. Our modeling shows that certain trades benefit more from visual media. Remodelers and roofers, for example, often see stronger returns from platforms like YouTube and Instagram (used by 47% of homeowners per our research) because the visual transformation is part of the sell. HVAC and plumbing? The decision factors are different — speed, trust, price. Those businesses often do better with high-intent search and review-driven channels.
What to Do About It: Build Your Mix, Not Someone Else’s
Start by being honest about your revenue and market position. If you’re under $1 million, your media mix should be heavily digital and laser-focused on high-intent channels. Google Local Services Ads and Lead Aggregators may be funded first — it’s the closest thing to guaranteed qualified leads. After that, paid search, then targeted Facebook/Instagram for retargeting and local awareness. Direct mail might work in a tight geographic area if you can commit to consistent drops, but test small before scaling.
If you’re in the $1-3 million range, you can start testing traditional — but test is the key word. Don’t commit to a year-long broadcast TV contract because a rep showed you reach numbers. Start with targeted cable or a short-term radio flight. Track the lift. Our MMM work consistently shows that businesses in this range benefit from adding 20-30% traditional to the mix, but only if it’s done strategically and measured properly.
Above $3 million, you should be running a true blended mix. At this level, you need volume, and digital alone often maxes out before you do. This is where broadcast TV, sustained direct mail programs, and even OTT start making sense. But even here, the majority of your budget should still be in digital because that’s where attribution and optimization happen fastest. Think 40% traditional for reach and brand, 60% digital for conversion and tracking.
One more critical point: your market size changes everything. A $2 million roofer in Omaha and a $2 million roofer in Dallas need completely different strategies. Smaller markets allow for more efficient traditional media. Larger markets often require heavier digital just to break through the noise. Match your mix to your market reality, not to what worked in someone else’s zip code.
Next Steps for Building Your Media Mix
- Audit your current spend by channel and calculate actual cost per lead (not just impressions or clicks) for each.
- Benchmark your revenue against the ranges above and identify if you’re over-invested in channels that don’t match your business stage.
- Test one new channel at a time with a defined budget and tracking in place — don’t blow up your entire mix at once.
- If you’re above $1.5 million in revenue, get a Media Mix Model run to see where incremental dollars actually drive return.
- Revisit your mix every six months — market conditions, competition, and media costs shift faster than most owners realize.
The DW Creative Perspective
At DW Creative, we don’t start with channels. We start with models. Our Media Mix Modeling (MMM) approach uses regression analysis to isolate the actual contribution of each channel to your revenue — not just correlation, but causation. This allows us to build a media plan based on your specific business, market, and revenue level, not on industry averages or what’s trendy. If you want to know what mix will actually move the needle for your business, that requires data, not guesswork.
DW Creative is an agency built on evidence, not instinct. If you want help building a media mix based on what actually works for businesses like yours, schedule a fit call with our team.
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